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And the Rain Keeps Coming ...

It appears we are on the rain train.

Have you had enough rain this year? If not, you're in luck, if so... your only option is to move! :-)

The extended forecast shows several very vigorous systems traversing our area over the next two weeks, and the models are showing those systems dropping rain in buckets over us, dumping almost a foot of rainfall. While these amounts will no doubt change, all the models show a very wet period coning up, and even the latest maps from the HPC are showing almost 4" of rainfall over the next 5 days. We still need the rain, but a foot of rain will cause major flooding issues if it comes to fruition. 

The rainfall that we had last week has put a major dent in the drought situation in Georgia. Statewide, the most serious level of drought, D4 or Exceptional, went from 2.46 percent coverage to 0.00 percent while the next level, D3 (Extreme) went from 11.72 percent to 7.97 percent. The latest drought maps can be found here: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_drought_state.php

Lake Lanier is currently sitting at approximately 1,065 feet and we would ideally like to see it around 1,071 feet before summer, and hopefully over the next several weeks we can get very close to that summer pool level. You can view information about Lanier and other Georgia lakes here.

For those of you that plant gardens, the Crop Moisture Index shows North Georgia to be very wet right now, and most likely only going to get worse (or better, depending on how you look at it!). This link contains that map, 2nd to the bottom.

If we can't get snow, we will most certainly get rain, and lots of it, so keep your umbrella and your boat ready!

 

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This post is contributed by a community member. The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Patch Media Corporation. Everyone is welcome to submit a post to Patch. If you'd like to post a blog, go here to get started.

North Georgia Weather February 21, 2013 at 10:04 AM
LOL! R, like many of us, Tommy doesn't have a lot of faith in some of these forecast, and especially this winter. I can show you an image for the forecast for March temps being well below normal for us in the southeast, but it wouldn't look much different that the previous cold forecasts that never really materialized. We've been teased many times this year, but never been kissed, it's about time for a big, fat, wet one! :-)
North Georgia Weather February 21, 2013 at 11:24 AM
VERY long Area Forecast Discussion this morning, here's the link so you can read it all, as well as a few excerpts: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_afd_ffc.php AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 456 AM EST THU FEB 21 2013 .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... IF YOU BLINKED...YOU PROBABLY MISSED THE BRIEF PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER WE HAD YESTERDAY. A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN IS IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACT BEING THE PROLONGED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA. FOR THE SHORT TERM...GUIDANCE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL MASS FIELDS...THOUGH WHEN YOU GET DOWN TO THE DETAILS THERE ARE SOME MUCH LARGER DIFFERENCES. I was going to post more, but there is a lot going on with the weather right now, and they had a lot to write about, so please click on the link above, sit back, grab a drink, and have a nice little read. :-)
North Georgia Weather February 21, 2013 at 11:32 AM
Ahhh..... the first mention of what I was alluding to on Tuesday! THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED...A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES AFFECT NORTH GEORGIA. WHILE CURRENT MODEL DATA DOES NOT FORECAST WINTER PRECIP...THE PATTERN THAT IS BEING FORECAST COULD LEAD TO SOME WINTER PRECIP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS NEXT WEEK...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME. AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEK I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE MODELS FORECAST WINTER PRECIP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THESE SHORTWAVES WOULD LEAD TO WINTER PRECIP AT NIGHT WHEN THE AIR TEMP WOULD DROP BELOW FREEZING. Fuzzy things are beginning to appear in the crystal ball... :-)
North Georgia Weather February 21, 2013 at 12:31 PM
From the HPC this morning: MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR REPEATING ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST REGIONS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORMING AND STRENGTHENING, WHILE ONE OR MORE REGIONS OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG IT WITH A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINING TO THE WEST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BECOME AS HIGH AS 1.75 INCHES ALONG THE FRONT, WHICH IS 2.5 TO 3.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL, WHILE WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR AND MULTIPLE REGIONS AND PERIODS OF ASCENT PROVIDE AMPLE OPPORTUNITY FOR HEAVY RAIN. THUS, DESPITE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES REMAINING QUITE LOW ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION AND SOUTHEAST, THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THEREFORE, A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WERE CONTINUED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR BOTH DAYS 2 AND 3. THE MODEL QPF VALUES VARIED CONSIDERABLY, WITH THE MEDIAN AND SOUTHWARD AXES OF THE GFS/ECMWF FAVORED MORE THAN THE NORTHWARD NAM, WITH 24 TO 48-HOURLY TOTALS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 4 TO 5 INCHES OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST.
Mitch February 21, 2013 at 02:52 PM
Winter storm Q? Are you serious Weather Channel? I am done with them! I just deleted their app off my phone. DaculaWeather - do you have a mobile app or know a good one for iphones?
North Georgia Weather February 21, 2013 at 03:31 PM
LOL! This naming of winter storms is crazy. What is it you'd like to see in this app Mitch? I know of several good solutions depending on your needs.
Mitch February 21, 2013 at 04:29 PM
Well, since your blogs and links keep me posted on most my weather info, I don’t need much. A very good radar loop with zooming capabilities, an hourly and extended local forecast, and maybe severe weather alerts will just about do it for me on the go with my phone. And of course something NOT in the Weather Channel Group and preferably free.
North Georgia Weather February 21, 2013 at 05:09 PM
Mitch, I use RadarScope for radar images on my android tablet, it also works on iPads and iPhones. It cost a few dollars but well worth it. It will also display Level2 hi rez data. WeatherGeek is pretty good for model images and loops. The Storm Prediction Center has a mobile version of their Mesoscale Analysis product here: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/mobile.php And... last but not least, I have a page designed to cell phones etc. It has the forecast, current conditions (which auto-update like on my main page) and a Google radar loop. http://www.daculaweather.com/cellphone.php I have more stuff if you need it! :-)
North Georgia Weather February 21, 2013 at 05:12 PM
Looks like I need to fix the radar loop on the cell phone page, I'll have it fixed today, I know the issue.
Mitch February 21, 2013 at 05:47 PM
Awesome, these will be perfect! Thank you! And if daculaweather.com starts naming winter storms I'm going to banish weather entirely from my life! Well, okay maybe I’ll just check the Mellish Meter each day…but that’s it! :)
North Georgia Weather February 21, 2013 at 07:18 PM
No gimmicks here, just the facts! :-)
Bob M. February 21, 2013 at 11:01 PM
The cellphone app is excellent. Thank you. If I may make a suggestion: make the Daculaweather.com at the top a link to the main Website. drdata
North Georgia Weather February 21, 2013 at 11:24 PM
Try it now! :-)
Bob M. February 22, 2013 at 12:57 AM
Man, you are smokin'! drdata
North Georgia Weather February 22, 2013 at 10:41 AM
So far today, 1.26" at 5:40am and still raining, for a 1.30" total. The rain will taper off a bit today but return tonight and tomorrow.
North Georgia Weather February 22, 2013 at 10:45 AM
March 3rd.... that date keeps popping up. Not this weekend, but next. Think white.
North Georgia Weather February 22, 2013 at 11:05 AM
If anyone out there is a Google Maps developer, I'd like to talk to you about a project! I need to migrate Google API v2 code to v3.
Terrie R February 22, 2013 at 12:29 PM
OK - I am thinking white as hard as I can. Do you think if I say it over and over and click my snow boots together 3 times it would help? There's going to be snow, there's going to be snow, there's going to be snow! OK - I have done my part! :)
North Georgia Weather February 22, 2013 at 02:18 PM
I am too Terrie!!! We're becoming more and more optimistic about the cold and possible winter precipitation chances. We're within 10 days now and the models are very insistent on cold air arriving, as well as storm tracks called Miller A's along the Gulf. The next 2-3 weeks will be our best and maybe last shot at winter, let's hope it's a good one!
Mitch February 22, 2013 at 02:46 PM
This may help... https://developers.google.com/maps/articles/v2tov3
North Georgia Weather February 22, 2013 at 02:55 PM
From meteorologist Allan Hoffman this morning, Allan was gracious enough to allow me to use his model images on my site. Allan is a meteorologist in Raleigh "The pattern seems very threatening for a suppressed storm system to form and bring the threat of wintry precipitation to areas far to the south. However, the models are not latching on to any one s/w yet or one storm system. Some of the various ensemble members do show winter storms, but none of the operational models yet, although the 00z ECMWF is very close. Stay tuned to the 2/28 through 3/5 time frame as I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see a storm threat pop up in that time window. Either way it looks to be well below normal temperature wise." http://www.examiner.com/article/cold-close-to-winter-ahead?CID=examiner_alerts_article
North Georgia Weather February 22, 2013 at 02:59 PM
Yes, I've been studying up... but my forte is not coding. If it's not CSS, HTML, or PHP, it's getting outside of my realm. The original Google radar maps that I currently have will quit working in May. The guy that did the original development is no longer doing any outside work, so the reason for finding someone that is knowledgeable with v3. It pretty much requires a total re-write of the code. I have one Google radar map that is working as v3, but not sure how to fix it for my purpose. http://www.daculaweather.com/current/misc/google-maps-radar/4_google_radar.php
North Georgia Weather February 22, 2013 at 03:45 PM
.UPDATE... BULK OF PRECIP HAS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA AND MAIN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WAS DECREASE PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. GIVEN LOW CLOUDS...MOISTURE AND VERY LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR...HAVE MENTIONED DRIZZLE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA FOR THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH PRECIP WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THE HRRR HOLDS OFF ON BRINGING BETTER RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE ATL METRO AREA UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER HI RES MODELS SUGGEST A LATER TIME FRAME WITH THE BETTER POPS BEGINNING TONIGHT FOR THE ATL AREA. CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS TOWARD THE TIMING OF THE HRRR...BUT MAY STILL BE ON THE EARLY SIDE. MU CAPE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IS AROUND 400 J/KG. WITH LIMITED LIGHTNING STRIKES THIS MORNING...HAVE OPTED TO SHOW ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH 18Z AND THEN SCATTERED THUNDER FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BETTER HEATING OF THE DAY. HAVE SEEN ONE RIVER SITE /CUMMING/ GO INTO FLOOD THIS MORNING BUT WITH BULK OF PRECIP EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...THINK MOST HYDRO PROBLEMS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT.
Jon Evans February 22, 2013 at 03:52 PM
Thanks for the update. You definitely have my attention. I know it's a ways out, but do you see anything different with this winter weather chance than the previous ones that would lead to you to feel we might actually see some white stuff?
North Georgia Weather February 22, 2013 at 04:03 PM
What we're seeing from the models that we haven't seen all winter (or last winter at all) is a west based -NAO block. That block forces the cold air south instead of shunting it off the upper east coast. All the models are showing it in the 8-10 day period which they haven't done all winter. So a big ridge out west, and a big ridge off the east coast near Greenland force the cold south. Once the cold air is in place, it will force systems to swing around the base of the trough and either try to form a Gulf low or overrun the cold air at the surface. Either way, if we can get the cold air in place, our chances for winter precipitation go up dramatically. Donald Sutherland made a post last night: "Some late evening thoughts... Perhaps lending support to the ideas expressed in Message #631, some of the ensemble guidance is now suggesting that the EPO could go negative during the first week in March. If that happens, prospects of at least a period of cross-polar flow could increase." That would tap into the cold in Russia and bring some this way. We'll just have to see how this evolves.
North Georgia Weather February 22, 2013 at 04:24 PM
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1058 AM EST FRI FEB 22 2013 VALID 12Z MON FEB 25 2013 - 12Z FRI MAR 01 2013 ...'BLOCKY' PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ATLANTIC OCEAN... ...ACTIVE MIDWEST WINTER STORM TRACK EXPECTED...DAYS 3-5... TRENDS CONTINUED WITH THE BLOCKY (NEGATIVE) NAO PATTERN EMERGING IN THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC. THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE HAS DEFINITELY COME AROUND TO THE IDEA THAT THE SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST CYCLONE PROGRESSION ACROSS THE CONUS WILL COME TO A HALT AROUND DAY 5. THE PATTERN ALONG THE WEST COAST...AND SPLITTING SYSTEMS CONTINUES THROUGH DAY 7.
North Georgia Weather February 22, 2013 at 05:59 PM
From Robert Gamble at WXSouth.com: "If you're a snow lover in the East, this post is for you. I've mentioned how the AO and NAO haven't timed or synch'd up yet. Now it's game time I think, they both are synching up. And it's not in the "10 day"...it begins mid week with the ...next big upper low closing off in the Lakes. This will be the deep trough in the heart land and Eastern US that opens up the door to Canada and ushers in sustained cold, unlike no pattern seen this Winter. Now it's late Winter, so this won't be severe cold, but plenty cold aloft. And the GFS just in keeps such a strong Greenland block and holds this trough in place with several systems rotating though the Deep Eastern Trough, with a hint at retrograding flow ( ! ) This is about how you want to see the GFS in this time range....IE, cold and dry. There is probably going to be a couple of strong systems that round the bend of the trough and could tap the Gulf, turning into a Major Winter Storm in the Southeast, MidAtlantic or Northeast (or all 3)."
North Georgia Weather February 22, 2013 at 09:15 PM
Latest from Atlanta NWS: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 317 PM EST FRI FEB 22 2013 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... IN A LULL ACROSS THE CWA IN REGARDS TO PRECIP, BUT THIS WONT LAST LONG. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA WITH THE PRECIP FOCUSED ACROSS THIS AREA. SHOULD SEE THE NEXT WAVE OF ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST POPS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTHWARD AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA. BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL END ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA DURING THE MORNING, WITH THE RAIN COMING TO AN END ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA WHERE SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WEDGE IS FIRMLY IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER AS A SFC LOW RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY, THIS WILL HELP TO BREAK DOWN THE WEDGE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM FOR THIS AFTERNOON, MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS NEXT WAVE TONIGHT. THEY ARE ALSO SIMILAR WITH CLEARING OUT THE PRECIP SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
North Georgia Weather February 22, 2013 at 09:41 PM
Alma airport in Bacon County, just south of Macon, was 68º F just a little while ago, while we're hovering about 1º above 38. Almost a 30 degree temperature difference. Illustrates the strength of the CAD we have today. Even Nashville is in the lower 60's right now.
North Georgia Weather February 23, 2013 at 11:59 AM
Mr Sutherland's evening thoughts (he has a lot of these!) "Having said that, given the analog cases that have been coming up, I continue to have reasonable confidence that March 2013 could be the snowiest since March 2009 in some parts of the East. Whether or not a KU storm would occur is a different matter, but at least one of the analog cases had such a storm. The idea of a colder than normal start to March remains on track. With blocking forecast to grow stronger through the medium-term, one cannot rule out the prospect of an Arctic air mass moving down out of Canada at some point during the first 7-10 days in March."

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