The attached information was pulled from FMLS or First MLS. What do all these numbers tell us about the 30044 zip code of the Lawrenceville housing market? I think they tell the story of recovery. We are seeing not just ove the past month, but over the past 12-18 months housing inventory dropping to May of 2006 levels - a.k.a "before the bubble" broke.. The number The number of sold's is down, but the encouraging thing is that the number of pending sales, those that are under contract, are up dramatically in each period.1 MONTH 1 YEAR 18 MONTHS 08/12 09/12 % CHANGE 09/11 09/12 % CHANGE 03/11 09/12 % CHANGE FOR SALE 197 169 -14.2% 306 169 -44.8% 407 169 -58.5% SOLD 96 75 -21.9% 77 75 -2.6% 71 75 5.6% PENDING 170 218 28.2% 169 218 29.0% 158 218 38.0%
Referring to the attached chart, what I like to see too are the following. Month's of supply, also called absorption rate, has continued to plummet. Over the past twelve months we see a market segment that has gone from 4 months of inventory down to a scant 2.4! This my friends is the annoucement of a "Seller's Market." It will take the media approximately 6-12 months to catch up with me here, but note that anything less than about 6 months of housing inventory is a clear Seller's Market.
What about home prices? At their low in January of this year the average sales price was $92,900. Last month we were at $102,700 and that figure is NOT the highest monthly figure over the past six months! This means on that on the whole we are seeing gains, not losses anymore!
Much of this we can attribute to fewer distressed properties, foreclosures or short sales. From June-September of 2012 Gwinnett County Homes received 6,340 preforeclosure notices compared to 1,041 foreclosures. These event types represent potentially negative pricing pressure on a given market as eventually these properties can migrate into either short sales or bank owned sales.
On the demand side of the equation, during this time period there were 4,412 total sales in Gwinnett County. It is important to note the difference in seller types that make up this data component. 1,607 sales were REO Sales (bank/government owned sales) while 2,805 sales were Market Sales, or qualified transactions where the seller was not a bank of government entity. This means that in Gwinnett County that less than 37 percent of all sales were bank or government owned sales. Compare this with October a year ago through January 2012 where more than half (56 percent) of all sales were bank/government owned.
Take a look at the October Monthly Video Market Update!
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